RECENT AND FORTHCOMING PUBLICATIONS

“Boom and Bust Cycles in Emerging Markets: How Important is the Exchange Rate?”, Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).
“Monetary Policy Spillovers: A Global Empirical Perspective” (with D. Lombardi, S. St. Amand), International Journal of Central Banking (forthcoming). 
“Short-Selling Bans and the Global Financial Crisis: Are They Inter-Connected?” (with Martin Bohl and Badye Essid), Applied Economics Quarterly (forthcoming).
 “Speculative Activity and Returns Volatility of Chinese Major Agricultural Commodity Futures”, with Martin Bohl and Claudia Wellenreuther, Journal of Asian Economics (forthcoming).
“Quantifying the Impact of the November 2014 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect”, with Richard Burdekin, International Review of Economics and Finance (forthcoming).
 “Monetary Policy, Medium and Long-Term Yields at the Effective Lower Bound: International Evidence” (with Domenico Lombardi and Samantha St. Amand), Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming.

“Making Sense of Hawkish and Dovish Monetary Policy in an Inflation Targeting Environment:  Lessons From Canada” (with Domenico Lombardi and Samantha St. Amand), in progress – for CEPR ebook Doves and Hawks: Economic and Politics of Monetary Policymaking (S. Eijffinger and D. Masciandaro, Editors).
“Central Banks: Evolution and Innovation in Historical Perspective”, with M.D. Bordo, prepared for Sveriges Riksbank 350 Years: A Central Bank in a World of Central Banks (Cambridge, Mass.: Cambridge University Press, forthcoming). [*]
“The Anatomy of Inflation: An Economic History Perspective”, with Martin Bohl, prepared for the Handbook of the History of Money and Currency, edited by S. Battilosi, Y. Cassis, and K. Yago (Springer, forthcoming).
“What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished?”, in Central Banks and Their Competitors”, forthcoming in Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking, edited by D. Mayes, P.L. Siklos, and J.-E. Sturm (Oxford: Oxford University Press) [*]



WORK IN PROGRESS

“Has Monetary Policy Changed? How the Crisis Shifted the Ground Under the Central Banks”.
“The Cross-Border Credit Channel: Implications for the Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policies”, (with A. Filardo, BIS).
Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking (co-edited with David Mayes and Jan-Egbert Sturm), Oxford University Press, in preparation.
“Sixty Years of FOMC Minutes: Quantifying and Interpreting Their Links to the Macroeconomy”.
“Monetary Policy Setting in Australia, Canada, and the Euro Area: Insights From the Shadows” (with Domenico Lombardi and Samantha St. Amand, CIGI).
“Together or Apart? Monetary Policy Divergences in the G4” (with Samuel Howorth and Domenico Lombardi, CIGI).
“The Transmission of Financial Shocks on a Global Scale: How Important Are They?” (with G.-C. Beaino, D. Lombardi, CIGI).
 “The Network Properties of Capital Flows: How Connected is the Global Financial System?”, with D. Lombardi and Joanna Wajda.
“The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policies: A Survey of the International Evidence, Lessons Learned, and is a ‘New Normal’ in our Future?”, with D. Lombardi and S. St. Amand.
“Monetary Policy Transmission in Systematically Important Economies; Is China Different?”, with D. Lombardi and X. Xie.
“Inflation and Monetary Policy: What South African Newspapers Report in an Era of Policy Transparency”, with M. Reid, Z. Bergman, S. du Plessis, and M. Max Bergman.

RECENT AND FORTHCOMING PUBLICATIONS AND WORK IN PROGRESS

Occasionally, I will post some papers that are in progress but not quite ready for wider distribution.
None of these papers are to be quoted or cited without my permission.
​Comments, of course, are more than welcome. 

@ January 2018, Google Scholar h-index=33 (since 2007)

@ January 2018, Top 5% of authors in 28 categories, IDEAS​​

Michael D. Bordo and Pierre L. Siklos (2015), "Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration," NBER working paper w20824, forthcoming in ​Of the Uses of Central Banks: Lessons From History (Cambridge University Press, 2016), The raw data in Excel format can be downloaded here.

“Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment” (with W. Enders, Universityof Alabama), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19 (April 2001): 166-177.

The RATS program and data that replicates our paper is available from the ESTIMA procedures and examples page at
http://www.estima.com/cgi-bin/procbrowser.cgi?Version=810&Revision=Any&Subject=Any&Reference=Siklos 

In 2012,  Eren Ocakverdi, Head of Analytical Modeling & Macroeconomic Research, Yapi Kredit Invest (TURKEY) has written an EVIEWS add-in which is available from   http://www.eviews.com/cgi/ai_download.cgi?ID=tarcoint.aipz.

Note that the add-in is not as flexible as the original program. In particular, the threshold is assumed to be zero when this is often not the case. Still it is an extremely easy and useful quick test procedure.

“No Single Definition of Central Bank Independence is Right for All Countries”, European Journal of Political Economy 24 (December 2008): 802-16.
An Excel file with the cross-country central bank independence and other institutional data can be downloaded here.

“Not Quite as Advertized: Canada’s Managed Float During the 1950s and bank of Canada Intervention” European Review of Economic History 13 (December 2009): 413.-35.
An Excel file with the real time data  can be downloaded here.

“Central Bank Transparency: An Updated Look”, Applied Economics Letters 18 (July 2011): 929-33.
The central bank transparency index data can be obtained (in Excel format) from the Central Bank Communication Network website, http://www.central-bank-communication.net/.
​Note that the data are up to 2011. A version which updates data until 2013 will be made available sometime early 2017.

DATA AND PROGRAMS
I post datasets/code that might still be useful or have been requested on a regular basis

Centre for International Governance Innovation: working papers, policy briefs, and Op-Eds

C.D. Howe Institute: e-briefs, communiques, chapters in books

Research Papers in Economics: working papers and publications in progress

Social Science Research Network: working papers and publications in progress

From Michael Parkin and Robin Bade, MACROECONOMICS: Canada in the Global economic Environment, Eighth Edition (Toronto: Pearson, 2013)

Over my career I have done research in econometrics (time series analysis) while in recent years I have devoted more attention to monetary policy, central banking issues, and finance issues. I have also always been interested in how forecasts are made and change over time either because of inherent biases of forecasters or because of the policy regime in which the forecasts are prepared. I retain an abiding interest in how econometric techniques can be used to illuminate policy problems. I also have a great interest in examples and illustrations from economic history.

Previous and some ongoing papers of mine can be downloaded from several locations. They include:

RESEARCH

“Austerity and Recovery: Exchange Rate Regime Choice, Economic Growth and Financial Crises” (with M. Bohl and P. Michaelis), Economic Modelling (forthcoming). The raw data in Excel format can be downloaded here. 

Copyright © Pierre L. Siklos, Professor of Economics. All rights reserved.

​"Benchmarking Macroprudential Policies: An Initial Assessment" (with D. Lombardi), Journal of Financial Stability (2016).